I get asked this question more than any other. In the elevator at One57. In my DMs. On Fox Business. At Baruch College where I teach. At cocktail parties. On set at Owning Manhattan. Everyone wants to know: should I buy now, or should I wait?
Here’s what I tell every single one of them: there is no perfect time. There is only the prepared time. Let me break it down.
Is Now a Good Time to Buy Luxury Real Estate in New York City?
Yes — if you’re strategic about it. The Manhattan luxury market — properties priced at $4 million and above — recorded nearly $12 billion in total sales in 2025, making it the second-highest annual total since 2006. The trophy segment above $10 million saw 284 transactions, one of the strongest tallies on record. That’s not a market in distress. That’s a market with conviction.
But here’s the nuance most people miss: inventory is at cyclic lows. Active listings across Manhattan are sitting below 5,000 units. That’s tight. And when supply is tight and demand is steady, prices don’t come down — they hold, and then they climb. The forecast for 2026 calls for 2–4% appreciation in luxury, with stronger performance in prime neighborhoods like Tribeca, the West Village, and Billionaires’ Row.
“You don’t time the market. You time your readiness. When your finances, your lifestyle, and the right property align — that’s your moment. And in this market, waiting for a crash that isn’t coming is the most expensive decision you can make.” — Nile Lundgren
What Are Mortgage Rates Doing in 2026, and Should I Care?
Mortgage rates have settled into the 5.8–6.5% range heading into 2026, down from the 7%+ peaks of 2023–2024. That’s meaningful relief. But here’s the thing most people don’t realize about the luxury market: over 60% of Manhattan transactions close in all cash. If you’re buying at $5M+, the rate conversation is often irrelevant.
For financed buyers in the $1–4M range, the rate environment is actually creating opportunity. Lower rates are bringing more buyers off the sidelines, but we’re still in that window where inventory hasn’t caught up. That’s your edge — act while the crowd is still hesitating.
As Ryan Serhant likes to say: marry the house, date the rate. Your monthly payment can change. Your address can’t.
Which NYC Neighborhoods Are the Best Value for Luxury Buyers Right Now?
This is where having a broker who actually walks these streets matters. Here’s where I’m telling my clients to look in 2026:
Tribeca remains the gold standard for downtown luxury, but the value play is now in the Financial District, where new development conversions are delivering incredible product at 15–20% below comparable Tribeca pricing. The Upper East Side is having a quiet renaissance — you can get significantly more space on Park or Fifth than you can in NoHo or the West Village, and the new development pipeline there is selling out before it even hits the public market.
Brooklyn’s luxury corridor — Dumbo, Brooklyn Heights, Williamsburg — continues to appreciate at 4–5% annually. And for investors, Queens neighborhoods like Long Island City and Astoria are delivering rental yields of 4–5.5% that Manhattan simply can’t match.
How Long Does It Take to Sell a Luxury Apartment in Manhattan?
It depends on price point and positioning. Properties priced under $5M that are well-staged and accurately priced are moving in 40–60 days. At the $10M+ level, expect 90–135 days on average. But I’ve sold properties in 14 days that other brokers couldn’t move in 14 months. The difference isn’t just price — it’s presentation, marketing, and who your broker knows.
The era of listing a luxury apartment on the MLS and waiting is dead. At SERHANT., we’re a content-to-commerce firm. We produce cinematic videos, targeted social campaigns, and global outreach that puts your property in front of qualified buyers worldwide. The Lundgren Team specifically leverages over 1.1 million combined social media followers across our agents — that’s an audience most boutique brokerages can’t even dream of.
Should I Buy or Rent in NYC in 2026?
If you’re planning to stay in New York for five or more years, buying is almost always the smarter play. Vacancy rates are below 2%, average one-bedroom rents are pushing $3,950, and they’re climbing. You’re paying someone else’s mortgage every month. Property values are projected to grow 4–6% annually. Do the math.
But I’m not going to lie to you and say buying is right for everyone. If you’re in a transitional period, if you’re not sure about your five-year plan, or if you’re new to the city and still figuring out your neighborhood — rent strategically, invest the difference, and when you’re ready, call me.
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Work with the Lundgren Team at SERHANT. — $500M+ in luxury sales across NYC, Miami & Dubai.
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